Forecasting with Expert Opinions
نویسنده
چکیده
Background In 2003 the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) introduced its Monthly Economic Forecasting Survey. Each month the WSJ polls between 50 and 60 well-known economic experts asking their forecasts of future key economic variables such as GDP, inflation, US treasury rates, unemployment, housing starts, and other data. The forecasts are always for set times of the year, namely the ends of the first and second half of the calendar year, so while the data is collected monthly, the forecast interval varies from one to six months ahead. The forecasts of all participants are made public, but the WSJ also presents a “consensus” view which is simply the sample average forecast of the participants.
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